Will Gold Hit $5000 Per Ounce? | Historical Analysis and 2025-26 Price Forecasts

 

Will Gold Hit $5,000 Per Ounce?

There’s no shortage of gold price forecasts on the internet. After gold rocketed past multiple all-time highs this year, some analysts argued that the gold might hit $5000 per troy ounce – and soon. This bullish speculation is nothing new; gold advocates have been preaching that the metal is undervalued for decades at this point. 

Obviously, gold reaching $5000 per ounce would be an absolute dream for investors. But will gold actually hit $5000 per ounce? It’s not impossible for gold to hit $5000 per ounce, but doing so would take both time and an extraordinary set of circumstances. For gold to hit $5000/ozt, the spot price of gold would have to add just over 25% to its all-time high of over $4,000 per troy ounce. The only scenario where this would occur quickly is if there was a truly disruptive global economic or geopolitical event, such as a world war or rampant hyperinflation in the United States. 

The more likely path for gold to hit $5000 per ounce is a slow one. Over time, gold tends to gain value as the United States dollar loses buying power. Given enough time, gold prices will likely reach $5000 per ounce, as long as it remains a go-to safe haven asset for investors who want to shield their assets against inflation, uncertainty, and instability. 

To get a better idea of whether or not $5000 is a realistic gold spot price goal, we’ll need to take a closer look at the history of gold prices. 

A Brief History of Gold Prices – Is $5,000 Gold Even Possible?

Gold prices have varied widely over the last several thousand years. Gold prices have ranged historically from as low as $289.41 per troy ounce (after adjusting for inflation) in 1970 to an all-time high of beyond $4,000 per troy ounce in October of 2025.

So, is it possible for gold to reach $5000 per ounce? The answer: sort of. It’s certainly possible for gold to hit $5000 per ounce, but it would require gold to increase by just over 25% from its current all-time high of over $4,000 per troy ounce. Is that price appreciation impossible? Absolutely not! In fact, the spot price of gold has multiplied from its 1970s high. 

That price increase took about 54 years, though. Gold, like all assets, takes time to gain value. 

Time isn’t the only factor that contributes to gold’s value as an investment. Geopolitical conditions, the U.S. economic environment, and a slew of other stressors influence the value of safe haven assets like gold and silver. To explore how these factors have impacted gold prices in the past, let’s look at some of the gold market’s main historical periods. 

Pre-1971: The Gold Standard Era

Under President Richard Nixon, the United States officially abolished the gold standard, a monetary system under which the value of currency was pegged to a fixed quantity of gold. Prior to the end of the gold standard, gold prices were relatively stable during the 19th and early 20th centuries. 

For many years under the gold standard, an ounce of gold was worth around $20. Before you get too excited, remember that this is in early-1900s money. To put things in perspective, $20 in 1935 would be worth about $460.82 today! 

It wasn’t until the U.S. ended the gold standard in 1971 that the precious metal truly became the valuable, traded commodity that it is today. 

1971-1980: Gold Price Speculation Truly Begins

After the U.S. abolished the gold standard, the gold market really began to explode in popularity. The U.S. break from the gold standard happened to coincide with a variety of geopolitical and economic stressors all over the world to create a kind of “perfect storm” for a gold price run. 

A series of oil crises wreaked havoc on the world economy in the 1970s, and both the Yom-Kippur War and the Iranian Revolution took place during the same decade. In the United States, high inflation, record unemployment, and a stagnant economy created one of the worst economic climates of the past century. 

All of these factors combined to make gold an attractive asset to investors. Since the precious metal was pegged to a currency until 1970, the collapse of the gold standard in 1971 combined with a variety of economic events to drive gold to several new highs during the 1970s and early 1980s. 

Market demand for gold began to fall during the 1980s as the U.S. entered a period of economic recovery. At the turn of the 21st century, the gold market experienced another monumental shift resulting from geopolitical stressors. 

2001-2011: Gold as an Uncertainty Hedge

Gold’s role as a perennial safe haven asset was secured during the early 2000s, when the precious metal saw some of its most significant and dramatic price increases ever. Two major events motivated gold prices in the 2000s: wars in the Middle East and a global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. housing market crash of 2008. 

Gold prices increased during every year from 2001, when the 9/11 attacks happened, until 2012, when the world economy started to recover from the global financial crisis. Multiple wars in the Middle East and global financial stressors helped drive gold to new heights at the turn of the century. 

2019-2020: Gold During COVID-19

Gold prices decreased and then stagnated until 2018, and 2019-2020 saw one of the most rapid gold price increases in the modern history of the precious metals market. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the world economy in 2019 and 2020, and many investors turned toward gold in order to safeguard their assets against uncertainty and inflation. 

In 2020, gold peaked at over $2,050 per troy ounce – its highest price ever at the time. As you already know, gold prices have climbed considerably since then. Gold’s highest price ever is just over $4,000 per troy ounce, which is an increase of neatly 100% from its high in 2020. 

Learning From History – What Conditions Lead to High Gold Prices? 

Historical gold price trends can help investors better understand what things tend to lead to higher gold prices. More than perhaps any other commonly traded asset class, gold is directly impacted by geopolitical and economic conditions. Given the historical periods we’ve discussed on this page, you should be able to identify three main factors that tend to lead to higher gold prices: 

1. High Demand/Scarcity, Low Supply
2. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
3. Tensions, Conflict, and War

Scarcity and Supply/Demand Dynamics

Supply and demand are economic concepts that influence the value of all investable assets – and gold is no exception. When economic or geopolitical conditions lead to an uptick in demand for gold while global supplies remain consistent, gold prices increase. And, of course, prices decrease if demand for gold decreases or supply increases. 

Sometimes, threats to the global supply of gold bullion can positively impact the precious metal’s price. This isn’t particularly common nowadays, considering how many countries produce high quantities of gold each year. However, sanctions or supply disruptions in major gold-producing countries like China can still lead to spikes in the spot price of gold. 

The bigger driver of gold prices is demand, which is often tied to geopolitical and economic conditions. 

Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty 

When geopolitical or economic conditions become less stable or more uncertain, demand for gold tends to increase. This is because most investors consider gold to be a safe haven asset, or a hedge against uncertainty. In other words, demand for gold often jumps during periods when people are unsure about their future and want to use metals as insurance against instability. 

You can see these trends throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. Many of the largest price increases in gold’s trading history coincided with global instability and economic uncertainty. Recessions tend to lead to especially high gold prices, as recessionary economies push investors to find new ways to shield their assets against a failing stock market and increasing inflation rates. 

Tensions, Conflict, and War

Of course, gold is considered a safe haven asset in more ways than one. Wars are usually disastrous for economies, as they lead to increased government spending, higher inflation rates, and skittish financial markets. Gold is a bit different, though; gold prices often either stay the same or increase during periods of tense international relations, conflict, and war. 

Why is gold a good investment during war? The biggest reason why gold performs well during periods of armed conflict is that wars increase the national debt and lead to higher inflation numbers in participating countries. Investors might also buy more safe haven assets (including gold) during wars because they’re concerned that their national currency may lose buying power. 

Even this year, we saw gold prices hit all-time highs as investors became worried that the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine would lead to larger regional wars. 

Could Gold Prices Hit $5000 Per Ounce? | 2024 Gold Price Forecast and Analysis

We set out today to answer one question: will gold hit $5000 per ounce? But to really understand whether $5000/oz gold is a real possibility, we needed to consider the precious metal’s price history and the factors that motivated price action for gold across multiple decades. 

In 2024, a slew of economic and geopolitical stressors drove gold to several fresh all-time highs. Wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and growing tensions between several other countries in the Middle East motivated safe haven buying. In the United States, speculation surrounding interest rate cuts, rising consumer confidence, and a hotly contested presidential election helped push gold prices even higher. 

Like in the 1970s, 2000s, and 2019-2020, 2024 has been a veritable perfect storm of conditions that primed gold to reach new heights. With Donald Trump’s victory in 2024, analysts expect 2025 to be another potentially strong year for the precious metals market. Economists say that some of President-Elect Trump’s economic policies, including a proposal for universal tariffs on imported goods, could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation, two signals that typically boost gold’s appeal to investors. 

Gold could hit $5,000 in 2025, considering that the precious metal already set a new all-time high above $4,000/ozt in April of this year. However, the precious metal would require some geopolitical or economic help to finally cross the $5,000 per troy ounce line. Typically, large and rapid increases in the spot price of gold are preceded by major international events, such as the outbreak of a major conflict between world powers or the beginning of a recession. 

Long story short, it is unlikely that gold will reach $5000 anytime soon. It is not impossible for gold to reach $5000 eventually; gold prices would need to climb about 25% higher than the current all-time high in order to hit $5000 per troy ounce. Since gold has already increased in value by more than 860% in the 54 years between 1970 to 2024. 

What Would Have to Happen For Gold to Hit $5000/oz?

Like we mentioned, it would take a pretty huge development for gold to hit $5000 within 2024 or 2025. Typically, gold’s highest price increases have come on the heels of a new major war, the beginning of a recessionary economy, or another significantly disruptive international event, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Most of gold’s price appreciation over the past one-hundred years has been a marathon – not a sprint. It took gold decades to reach $1,000 per troy ounce, and the precious metal only crossed the $2,000/oz line for the first time in 2020. Although 2025 has already been one of the best-performing years for gold’s spot price, we’re still quite far away from $5,000 per ounce. 

Because gold would need to add about 25% onto its current highest price ever, it is unlikely that gold will hit $5000 per ounce in the near future. In the long term, however, geopolitical uncertainty and economic instability could potentially drive gold to $5000 per troy ounce. 

Final Thoughts: Gold Could Reach $5000 Per Ounce – But Will It?

Gold soared past multiple all-time highs in 2024, and some analysts say that the price of gold could go even higher. But could gold reach $5000 per ounce? It’s unlikely for gold to hit $5000 in the near future, given that this amount would represent a percentage increase of 25% on gold’s current spot price. 

Still, gold could certainly cross the $5000 line eventually. Since the 1970s, gold has multiplied in value by more than seven times. Given the unique set of geopolitical and economic stressors facing global markets in the next decade, it is entirely possible that investors can one day rejoice at $5000/oz gold prices!

You might also be interested in:

• What Was Gold’s Highest Price Ever?
• Will Silver Hit $50 Per Ounce? 
• What Determines the Spot Price of Gold?