Gold and Silver Down Ahead of U.S. Employment Data, Further US-Iran Talks

 

Gold and Silver Down Ahead of U.S. Employment Data, Further US-Iran Talks

(June 29th, 2026) – Gold and silver prices pulled back on Monday, settling into the red after both markets staged a moderate recovery last Friday. The spot price of gold shed nearly $70 per troy ounce, closing the trading session a bit above the $4,000/ozt support. Silver prices followed a similar trajectory, losing around $0.75 per troy ounce. The price action favored silver, driving the gold-silver ratio marginally lower on the day.

American markets will be closed on Friday in observance of the Fourth of July holiday. Despite the shortened timeline, investors are likely looking ahead to two main developments this week. As has often been the case this quarter, the market’s attention will be split between geopolitical stressors and domestic economic speculation.

In the Middle East, the US-Iran ceasefire faced a major test over the weekend. Iranian drones reportedly struck a cargo ship attempting to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, provoking retaliatory strikes by the U.S. military. Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump called the Iranian attack a violation of the ongoing ceasefire.

The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.

Despite a tense situation over the weekend, peace talks between the United States and Iran are expected to continue. Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday morning that the two countries’ lead negotiators plan to meet on Tuesday.

IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!

American markets rallied on the announcement, and crude oil futures fell after a brief bump in the early morning.

The U.S. and Iran may have avoided a premature end to the ceasefire that began approximately two weeks ago, but analysts say the deal may still be in peril. The big sticking point at this stage of negotiations appears to be the Israel-Lebanon conflict. Israel and Lebanon agreed to a security deal last week, but Hezbollah – Israel’s target in Lebanon – rejected it. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by the U.S. and Iran called for an end to fighting between the U.S. and Iran – as well as their allies. Iran had previously threatened to close the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz if Israeli strikes in Lebanon continued.

Domestically, traders are looking forward to a fresh U.S. employment report. Due for release on Thursday, this report could have major implications for the Federal Reserve as it prepares for its July meeting. The past two jobs reports showed strong growth in the labor market. This fact, paired with sticky inflation that has rocketed to more than two times the Fed’s longstanding 2% target, has driven speculation that the FOMC will be forced to raise rates at least one time in 2026.

As of the end of the trading session on Friday, CME FedWatch projected a 29.9% probability that the FOMC will raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting in July. On a longer timeline, the likelihood that Americans will see interest rates hiked climbs considerably. On Monday, CME FedWatch projected a probability of 79.9% that interest rates will close the year at least 25 basis points higher.

What rate cut bulls are looking for on Thursday is an example of what analysts call “bad news is good news” in the world of investing. While a downturn in new job creation would be bad for the overall U.S. economy, it could reduce the likelihood of a rapid rate hike, which is a bullish signal for both Wall Street and safe haven asset traders.

As it stands, strong employment figures and rising inflation numbers make it likely that the Fed moves to raise rates. Doing so could curb new job growth, but it would also help mitigate inflation before it becomes a more persistent problem. If Thursday’s numbers suggest a cooling jobs market, the FOMC may be more cautious about risking further damage with a rate hike.

Interest rate speculation played a major role in the precious metals market during 2024 and 2025. Due to unchanging interest rates and major geopolitical uncertainty this year, the 2026 market has seen Fed speculation take a backseat role by comparison. But as traders look ahead to several important FOMC meetings and the U.S. continues its negotiations with Iran, the inner workings of the central bank could play an outsized role in how safe haven markets perform in the coming months.