Gold and Silver Gain to End Trading Week

 

Gold and Silver Gain to End Trading Week

(June 26, 2026) – Gold and silver prices gained on Friday, recouping some of the week’s losses ahead of the weekend. The spot price of gold added nearly $50 per troy ounce. Silver prices outpaced gold, adding more than $1.15/ozt. The price action favored silver, driving the gold-silver ratio a bit lower on the day. Federal Reserve speculation and ongoing US-Iran negotiations remained a key driver in most American markets to close the trading week.

This was a tough week for both gold and silver. Gold shed nearly $200 per troy ounce throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. Silver struggled even more, pulling back by more than $7.50/ozt by midweek. Friday’s gains left gold and silver down from last week’s prices, but both metals recouped some of their losses heading into the weekend.

Federal Reserve speculation has emerged as a major demand driver in the precious metals market. Rate cut expectations took a back seat for much of 2026, both because of a lack of cuts/hikes and the US-Iran War. After the United States and Iran finalized a preliminary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities, markets turned to the Federal Reserve for cues on where the U.S. economy may be heading.

The FOMC is widely expected to raise interest rates at least once by the end of 2026. CME FedWatch projects a probability of 29.9% that the Fed will vote to raise rates at its July meeting. By December, the CME model forecasts a 77.2% likelihood that interest rates end the year at least 25 basis points higher than the current target of 3.50-3.75%.

At the FOMC’s last meeting in June, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters that the committee removed “forward guidance” from its official policy statement.

On that score, you might have already noticed something: a difference in today’s policy statement. It’s a bit shorter, a bit simpler – and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts, as best we can judge it. Absent, also, is so-called forward guidance – which we agreed was not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.

Comments from Warsh and various members of the FOMC have driven speculation that rate hikes could be coming, but the larger story has to do with the numbers. As Warsh noted in his post-meeting press conference, inflation has become a persistent issue. A fresh PCE reading released on Thursday saw consumer price inflation top 4%, double the Fed’s longstanding target of 2%.

Raising rates is typically the FOMC’s easiest path to curbing inflation, but doing so often entails risk for the labor market, as it increases borrowing costs for employers and can drive a downturn in new job creation. The past two U.S. employment reports have shown strong growth in the hiring market, which can give the central bank a bit of wiggle room when it comes to tightening monetary policy.

A fresh U.S. employment report for the month of June is scheduled for release next Thursday ahead of the long 4th of July weekend. This report could be particularly important for the FOMC as it gears up for the upcoming July meeting. If the June employment report shows major cracks in the labor market, the Fed may find itself in the difficult position where its two goals – lowering consumer prices and maximizing employment – are in tension.

Needless to say, investors will be watching the June employment report closely next Thursday.

Where geopolitics are concerned, a developing story on the Strait of Hormuz may pose another major obstacle as the U.S. and Iran attempt to further negotiate the ongoing ceasefire. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, Iranian drones attempted to attack ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called the attempted strike a violation of the ceasefire in a Truth Social post.

The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the Drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship. Damage was done, but the Ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other Drones. Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our Ceasefire Agreement.

According to U.S. Central Command, the U.S. responded with its own strikes on Iranian targets.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted strikes against Iran, June 26, as a powerful response to yesterday’s attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites after Iran hit M/V Ever Lovely on June 25 with a one-way attack drone.

Israel’s relations with Lebanon also pose a distinct risk to the US-Iran agreement, which called for an end to fighting between all U.S. and Iranian allies in the region. Marco Rubio, Secretary of State for the U.S., said this week that Lebanon and Israel have developed a framework for a peace deal. Iran-backed Hezbollah, Israel’s target in Lebanon, did not participate in the negotiations.

Although American traders seem primarily focused on interest rate speculation for now, these developments mean that tensions in the Middle East could easily re-emerge as a major source of price speculation among safe haven assets.