Silver Up, Gold Sideways Ahead of Key Economic Data Reports

 

Silver Gains, Gold Moves Sideways Ahead of U.S. Employment, Inflation Reports

(Bullion News Network) – Silver gained on Monday, erasing Friday’s losses as the precious metal added more than $2.20 per troy ounce to its spot price. The spot price of gold moved little to start the trading week, adding around $6 per troy ounce to its spot price to settle marginally above $4,300/ozt. The price action drove the gold-silver ratio nearly two points lower to around 67.50:1, its lowest rate in over four years. Traders are looking forward to a busy week of economic data reports in the United States, including the November U.S. unemployment report and a November Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for November. 

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to cut interest rates for a third consecutive time during a uniquely divided December meeting. Three FOMC voters dissented from the 25 basis point rate cut. Two voters preferred to leave rates unchanged in December, while one voter, Trump-appointed board member Stephen Miran, advocated for a more aggressive 50 bps interest rate cut. This was the first time the Federal Reserve had seen a three-dissent meeting since 2021. The rate cut news drove precious metal prices sharply higher, securing a new all-time high of $64.64/ozt for silver.

Friday saw silver retreat, losing more than $1.50 per troy ounce to end the week. Today, the spot price of silver recouped these losses, adding over $2.20 per troy ounce to its spot price ahead of several key data reports scheduled for release later this week. Traders are looking forward to key reports on the U.S. employment market and inflation rate, two measures of economic strength that could play major roles in how the Federal Open Market Committee will vote heading into 2026.

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year for a total rate reduction of 75 basis points. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in the post-meeting press conference that the upside risks to both prices and the labor market place the Fed in a precarious spot moving forward.

If you look through the SEP, you’ll see that a very large number of participants agree that risks are to the upside for unemployment and to the upside for inflation. So what do you do? You’ve got one tool. You can’t do two things at once. So at what pace do you move? […] it’s a very challenging situation. I think we’re in a good place to — as I mentioned, to wait and see how the economy evolves.

The delayed September employment report came in better than expected, with the U.S. economy adding 119,000 jobs against a median projection of around 50,000 jobs. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.4% after forecasters projected no change from August’s 4.3%. Inflation has steadily increased since hitting a low in April at 2.3%, and the FOMC remains cautious about the inflationary effect that can come from cutting rates three times in 2025.

During last week’s press conference, Chair Powell told reporters that U.S. President Donald Trump’s historic slate of tariffs is likely to have a major impact on consumer prices heading into the new year.

It’s really tariffs that’s causing the — most of the inflation overshoot. And we do think of those as likely to — in the current situation, as likely to be a one-time — you know, one-time price increase. Our job is to make sure that it is and we will do that job.

Attempting to maintain the strength of the U.S. employment market while targeting the Federal Reserve’s longstanding 2% inflation goal, the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly be paying close attention to the data reports scheduled for release this week. Forecasters expect troubling results from the U.S. unemployment report, with the median projection estimating that only 45,000 jobs were added in November. Forecasters also anticipate another uptick in unemployment, which is projected to increase from 4.4% to 4.5%. The core CPI, one of the most reliable measures of inflation in the United States, is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%.

Rate cut speculation played an outsized role in price action for both gold and silver throughout much of 2025. Safe haven assets like gold and silver tend to appreciate during periods of heightened inflation, and central bank actions like cutting interest rates can sometimes have an inflationary effect on the U.S. economy. With the Fed’s first meeting of 2026 scheduled for January 28th, traders will be paying close attention to this week’s data reports – and what they have to say about the FOMC’s projected economic outlook heading into the new year.

In the nearer term, the tone and tenor of this week’s inflation and employment reports could have a more direct impact on demand for safe haven assets like gold and silver. With both precious metals near all-time highs, any significant uptick in economic uncertainty could drive prices even higher. That’s been the story of the year, and there seems little reason to expect that to change before the end of 2025.

The spot price of silver increased on Monday, gaining more than $2.20 per troy ounce ahead of key U.S. inflation and employment data reports. Gold moved little to begin the week. The precious metal added around $6/ozt to its spot price, and the lopsided price action drove the gold-silver ratio more than 2.2 points lower to just above 67:1.