Precious Metals Market Recap (October 23rd, 2026): Gold and Silver Tumble Amid Fresh Strait of Hormuz Strikes

Precious Metals Market Recap (October 23rd, 2026)

Precious metal prices fell again this week. The spot price of gold shed around 4.15%, dropping to a three-month low. Silver fell even further, losing approximately 5.40% on the week and logging its lowest price since November of last year. The gold-silver ratio rose for a second consecutive week, adding around one point to close near 74:1.

More conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drove prices this week. Fresh Iranian strikes on tankers traversing the waterway pushed Brent Crude close to $115 per barrel, a five-month high, driving concerns that energy prices in the United States could stay elevated. While safe haven assets have historically tended to thrive during periods of heightened conflict, expectations that rising energy prices could lead to further interest rate hikes at the Federal Reserve have pushed gold lower.

Hormuz Attacks Push Brent Crude to Five-Month Highs

This week, Iranian forces conducted another series of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which an estimated 20% of annual global oil consumption normally flows. These attacks drove crude oil prices sharply higher, pushing Brent Crude to a five-month high near $115 per barrel.

The fresh Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz drove precious metal prices lower. This can appear paradoxical, but Fed rate hike expectations are working in the background to create a more complex set of levers for safe haven metals.

In September, the Fed voted to raise interest rates for the first time since July 2023 in a bid to mitigate inflation. Since then, analysts have anticipated that at least one more rate hike may be on the way before the end of 2026. Although gold tends to thrive during periods of heightened geopolitical conflict and rising inflation, rate hikes bring gold down by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets and putting downward pressure on inflation.

Because the Federal Reserve is already weighing raising rates again to curb inflation, renewed fighting that threatens to drive consumer prices higher actually works to gold’s detriment.

Silver Underperforms Gold Again

Like last week, silver took a harder hit than gold as prices retreated. Silver lost around 5.4% compared to gold’s estimated 4.1%. The discrepancy drove the gold-silver ratio about a point higher to around 74:1, up from 2025’s closing rate of 58:1.

Silver’s industrial demand may be working against it here. Around half of all silver demand goes to industry, and fears that rising oil costs could slow manufacturing have compounded the hit that silver already takes when general safe haven demand retreats. Because gold does not have the same level of industrial exposure, it managed to avoid taking that second hit.

Additionally, an AI-driven selloff in the tech market could also weigh on sentiment surrounding silver’s industrial demand. Silver is a vital component in the technology and solar sectors, so the sell-off bleeds into the silver trade more than it would for gold.

In other words, the past two weeks have seen gold suffer as a safe haven asset, while silver suffered as a safe haven asset and as an industrial commodity facing demand worries.

Fed Rate Hike Pause Expected, But December’s Still in Play

The FOMC is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, but a December rate hike remains likely. CME FedWatch finds a probability of 90.6% that the FOMC will vote to keep interest rates at 3.75-4.00% when it meets next Wednesday, but the odds of a December hike ended the trading week at 74.2%.

Last week also saw a bit of movement in Fed rate hike odds. Expectations for an October hike jumped at midweek after September’s CPI came in hotter than expected, but commentary from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later in the week suggested that the FOMC is not committed to a second consecutive rate hike.

“I don’t prejudge meetings […] We’re not in that business anymore.”

Interest rate speculation has played a major role in the precious metals market for the second half of 2026. The FOMC raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and rising consumer prices have driven expectations that another hike may be coming before the end of the year. Gold and silver are non-interest-bearing assets, and rising interest rates tend to correlate negatively with prices in both markets.

What to Watch Next Week

The big release to look out for next week is the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Coming off of the first rate hike in several years, the FOMC will decide next Wednesday whether to raise rates or pause. While markets largely expect the Fed to hold off on raising rates until December, traders will likely be paying close attention to the FOMC’s decision and Warsh’s post-meeting press conference to see where rates may be heading at the end of the year.

Next Thursday, traders will also be able to review the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Depending on the inflation read in this report, we could see more movement in rate hike expectations before the end of the week.

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