Gold and Silver Up Marginally Amid Flaring Middle East Tensions

 

Gold and Silver Up Marginally Amid Flaring Middle East Tensions

(Bullion News Network) – Gold and silver prices closed largely flat on Monday, notching slight gains amid fresh uncertainty in the Middle East. The spot price of gold added less than $5 per troy ounce to start the trading week. Silver fared slightly better, adding approximately $0.45/ozt but failing to cross $69 per troy ounce. The price action favored silver, driving the gold-silver ratio around 0.8% lower. Platinum-group metals retreated on the day, with platinum shedding approximately $18.50/ozt and palladium losing less than $6.50 per troy ounce.

The big news on Monday came out of the Middle East, where fighting between Iran, Israel, and Iran-backed Hezbollah threatened a shaky ceasefire between the U.S., Iran, and Israel. Iranian officials have previously stated that a ceasefire in Lebanon is a necessary component of any potential peace deal, but Hezbollah rejected a ceasefire offer proposed by Israel to Lebanon last week.

Over the weekend, Iran fired a series of rockets at targets in Israel. Israel responded with its own missiles. Both countries appear to have pulled back after the exchange, and U.S. President Trump said in a Truth Social post early Monday morning that Iran and Israel were planning a ceasefire.

Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade with remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

What could have been a larger reaction among safe haven assets was likely muted on Monday due to a quick ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Iranian leaders promised to stop fighting on Monday but promised “more severe” retaliation if Israel continues to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The back-and-forth means more uncertainty for markets. Iranian chief negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said on Monday that the United States “is neither seeking a ceasefire nor seeking dialogue.” Meanwhile, Trump reportedly claimed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. and Iran are moving toward further nuclear talks.

In short, traders should expect either progress toward talks or more conflict between Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, and the United States to drive speculation trading throughout the week on American markets.

Domestically, the big data release to look out for this week will be Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key May inflation report. This report will be vital for the Federal Reserve as it prepares for its June meeting. This meeting will be the first one led by Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick for Fed chair who was sworn in last month.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%. CME FedWatch projects the probability of a rate cut at only 1.9%, up from 0.4% one week ago and 6.6% last month. The last major inflation report was in line with expectations but above the Fed’s longstanding 2% target. Last Friday, a fresh U.S. employment reading outpaced forecasts, with the United States economy adding 172,000 jobs in May.

Because of the labor market’s strength and persistent inflation concerns, the FOMC currently appears unlikely to risk driving prices higher by cutting rates. A rate hike could be on the table, however, if Wednesday’s inflation report comes in hotter than expected. If the FOMC is faced with a strong U.S. employment market and rising prices, the Fed may choose to raise rates in the near-term in order to mitigate inflation.

On Friday, analysts from Goldman Sachs adjusted the institution’s projections to reflect no rate cuts until 2027.

The end of the month may yield some key signs from Warsh as he speaks to reporters in the post-decision press conference. As a Fed chair, Jerome Powell was notorious among economists for avoiding language that might tip markets off to the off-the-books beliefs he held about where rates may be heading. Warsh will have an opportunity this month to either continue that precedent or forge his own path as Americans watch the FOMC reach consensus under new leadership.

In any case, both the situation in the Middle East and Wednesday’s inflation report should draw most of the news this week. Where metals are concerned, this year has been a volatile one. Gold has historically tended to thrive in periods of conflict and rising oil prices, but the metal has more often fallen in line with Wall Street’s price action throughout much of 2026. It is impossible to say with certainty where gold and silver prices will head in any of the scenarios we’ve described, but it seems clear at this point that a combination of macro geopolitical factors and economic conditions in the U.S. will remain major demand drivers.