Gold and Silver Lower Ahead of Fresh Economic Data Reports

 

Gold and Silver Lower Ahead of Fresh Economic Data Reports

(Bullion News Network) – The price of gold and silver pulled back on Monday, extending losses that began last Friday as traders eagerly awaited fresh U.S. economic reports. September’s U.S. economic report is due for publication on Thursday, November 20th, after being delayed last month during the government shutdown. This report should be vital for the Federal Reserve as its FOMC members consider whether to cut interest rates for a third consecutive time at its December meeting. The Federal Reserve voted to cut rates in both September and October, citing a cooling labor market and relatively stable inflation figures. This upcoming economic data report, though one month late, is expected to play a pivotal role in the Fed’s decision-making heading into the final FOMC meeting of the year.

The spot price of gold retreated by more than $36 on Monday. Silver prices also pulled back, shedding over $0.25 per troy ounce. Monday’s price action favored silver, driving the gold-silver ratio more than 1/5th of a point lower to just under 80.5:1. Platinum group metals moved little on Monday, with platinum shedding around $6 per troy ounce and palladium losing over $4/ozt.

The interest rate outlook for December remained highly uncertain on Monday. Per CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the FOMC’s December meeting fell to 42.9%, down from 44.4% Friday, 62.4% last week, and 93.7% on October 17th. Last week, comments from some Federal Reserve officials injected more uncertainty into markets. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, told reporters that she does not believe a rate cut would be appropriate at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Given my baseline outlook, it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment […] I see several reasons to have a relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term.

Another key report due for release this week is the Federal Reserve’s October FOMC meeting minutes, which are slated for publication on Wednesday. October’s meeting saw two dissenting votes, both in opposite directions. Governor Stephen Miran argued for a 50 bps rate cut, and Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, voted instead for no rate change. Speaking to reporters at the post-meeting press conference in October, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the Federal Open Market Committee saw considerable disagreement concerning the proper course of action heading into the end of 2025.

In the Committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.

Rate cut speculation has played a significant role in price action for both gold and silver throughout the second half of 2025. Safe haven assets like gold and silver tend to gain value during periods of falling interest rates, and commentary surrounding potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve drove the precious metals to all-time highs throughout September and October. Gold and silver prices pulled back during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference in October, especially when the economist told reporters that a third rate cut at the FOMC’s third meeting is far from guaranteed. Powell’s commentary, combined with Susan Collins’s hawkish stance on a December rate cut, has cut into market confidence that Americans will see another interest rate reduction before the end of 2025.

All of this context makes this week’s scheduled employment report very important for traders looking for cues about where gold and silver prices could be heading. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting will happen on December 10th, and another rate cut could potentially drive precious metal prices even higher heading into mid-December. Conversely, evidence that the U.S. job market recovered in October may send rate cut odds spiraling, which could put downside pressure on both gold and silver prices.

Gold and silver pulled back on Monday ahead of key U.S. economic data reports. The gold-silver ratio retreated by less than half a point. The Fed’s October meeting minutes will release on Wednesday, followed by a postponed September U.S. employment report on Thursday. Both of these reports are slated to impact the Fed’s December rate cut vote, which could seriously influence the value of safe haven assets like gold and silver heading into mid-December and beyond.