When is the Best Time to Buy Gold?
Timing the gold market can be tricky. As most investors know, properly timing a market is the key to financial success. If you buy when prices are too high, you might have to hold onto your gold bars and coins for years before you can even think about taking a profit. The opposite is also true; selling when gold’s spot price is low means missing out on unrealized gains.
When is the best time to buy gold? Timing the gold market means paying attention to external economic factors like inflation, federal interest rates, and supply/demand dynamics. In this guide, we’re taking a look at everything new investors need to know about when it’s a good idea to buy gold.
When is Best Time to Buy Gold?
To time the gold market, you’ll need to do quite a bit of research. Traditional economic factors can give us clues about when gold’s price may be likely to spike. Investors who want to time the gold market need to understand supply and demand dynamics for the precious metal. Combined, all of these factors paint a vivid picture of the future for gold prices.
We recommend taking stock of all the online resources at your disposal before trying to time the gold market. Precious metal companies like Hero Bullion track the current spot price of gold, which can help you stay up-to-date with the latest information.
Factors That Influence Gold Prices
Before we get into the basics of timing the market for gold investments, we should take some time to address the factors that help determine gold’s price. For the most part, economists agree that inflation, federal interest rates, supply/demand dynamics, and investor speculation are the main determinants of gold’s price trajectory.
Economic Indicators
Gold has an inverse relationship with several key economic indicators. When we measure the success of the traditional economy, factors like inflation and federal interest rates give us clues into how the economy is doing. High inflation and interest rates are generally not great signs for the economy. High inflation means things are bad, and high interest rates suggest that the Federal Reserve agrees enough to take action.
But for gold bullion, high inflation and interest rates are a very good thing. When the general economy isn’t doing well, investors tend to turn toward a special class of assets called “safe haven assets.” More on that later. In short, the traditional metrics we use to negatively assess the economy actually help us to positively appraise the future of gold’s price.
Inflation
We’ll start with an easy one: inflation. Everyone knows the basics of inflation. When inflation rates are high, it’s harder for consumers to afford goods. Another way of explaining inflation: high inflation means the value of traditional currencies are devalued. Obviously, this isn’t a good sign for the economy – or for consumers.
But if you’re a gold investor, rising inflation can signal an incoming gold market for the yellowish precious metal. If you do your research, you might be able to spot the conditions that help make gold more expensive.
If inflation rates start to climb, it might be a good time to buy gold. Of course, this isn’t the only factor that influences the value of gold bullion. When we combine rising interest rates with other economic factors, we can get a better idea of the state of the traditional economy. When the traditional economy circles the drain, public demand for precious metals like gold skyrockets.
Federal Interest Rates
Likewise, federal interest rates give us a look into the health of the economy. The Federal Reserve is charged with managing the value of the United States Dollar. It’s a delicate balance; currency deflation can be just as bad as inflation during some economic conditions.
When the Fed senses that inflation rates signal an economic downturn, they respond by raising interest rates. These rising interest rates can lead to a downward spiral for the economy. Investors see the rising interest rates and avoid taking out large loans, which leads to diminished business activity. And, of course, this makes the economy worse.
When interest rates are high, some investors turn toward non-correlated assets. Gold is one such asset. This increases demand for the metal, which leads to higher prices. Timing the market for gold requires that investors closely monitor traditional economic indicators like federal interest rates.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
Another that influences the value of gold should be pretty familiar to any investor. Supply and demand dynamics impact the value of almost any commodity, and gold is no exception. When the supply of gold is disrupted from diminished mine operations, the asset becomes more expensive.
Likewise, skyrocketing demand for gold can lead to higher gold prices. When is the best time to buy gold? We recommend taking a closer look at supply and demand dynamics to figure out if gold might be due for a major price swing.
Investor Speculation
Finally, investor speculation impacts the spot price of gold. This core metric is a bit harder to quantify, and it takes a bit of practice to time the gold market by anticipating investor speculation.
It might be helpful to consider a common example. When the Federal Reserve is due to publish their minutes for a recent meeting, investors scramble to make predictions about whether they will increase or decrease interest rates. As you already know, increased interest rates are good for gold’s price, while decreasing interest rates may make gold less valuable.
A number of events can help us predict how institutional investors will speculate before the Fed releases their minutes. Commentary from Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, decisions made by other governments, and inflation rates can all give cues regarding general investor sentiment before breaking news.
It isn’t just interest rate rumors that can lead to heavy investor speculation. Major investors drive any market, and gold remains one of the most popular investment markets in the world. If you can predict how big players speculate on gold futures, you might be able to time the market and secure some profit for yourself.
Gold as a Safe Haven Asset
All of these factors reveal one important fact about gold: gold is a safe haven asset. Safe haven assets like gold tend to maintain value during difficult economic times. If you study gold’s price charts over the past few decades, you’ll notice that gold’s spot price actually increases during certain periods of economic downturn.
Because gold is a safe haven asset, it’s often more valuable when people are concerned about the state of the general world economy. Timing the gold market means taking cues from the traditional economic markets. If things are bad for the United States Dollar, gold might be due for a trip into the green.
When Should You Buy Safe Haven Assets?
As a general rule, safe haven assets are used to safeguard investment portfolios preceding – or during – economically challenging times. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to investors when interest and inflation rates are high.
When is the best time to buy gold? Savvy investors put their money on gold when economic indicators suggest that the economy is entering a bear market.
Is Now the Right Time to Buy Gold?
It’s difficult to say if gold is a good investment right now. Investors should carefully evaluate key economic metrics before purchasing gold. Your goal is always to sell gold high and buy it low. And if your research suggests that gold is heading toward a bull run, it might be time to buy!
Final Thoughts: When is the Best Time to Buy Gold?
Even seasoned investors sometimes struggle to properly time the gold market. Like all precious metals, the gold market is notoriously volatile. However, economists believe that some key metrics can provide valuable insight into where gold’s spot price might be headed.
Are you ready to add gold bullion coins and bars to your portfolio? Check out the competitively priced gold products on Hero Bullion’s website.
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About The Author
Michael Roets
Michael Roets is a writer and journalist for Hero Bullion. His work explores precious metals news, guides, and commentary.