Gold and Silver Move Sideways as US-Iran Tensions Flare

 

Gold and Silver Move Sideways as US-Iran Tensions Flare

(July 20th, 2026) – Precious metals moved largely sideways on Monday, with gold and silver heading in opposite directions to start the trading week. The spot price of gold retreated by less than $8 per troy ounce. The spot price of silver gained just a bit over $0.50/ozt, crossing $56.50 per troy ounce to settle at around $56.71/ozt. The price action favored silver, driving the gold-silver ratio lower for the first time since last Tuesday. Monday’s relatively calm trading day comes on the heels of fresh escalations in the US-Iran conflict.

Over the weekend, Iranian strikes on an American base in Jordan killed two U.S. soldiers. Almost 100 service members sustained injuries during the Iranian strikes. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened retaliation for the killings during a Truth Social post on Monday.

Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over! This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Join Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military.

Monday marked the tenth consecutive day of U.S. military strikes in Iran. Crude oil prices have gained more than 11.5% this month, and analysts say that the ongoing strikes could risk further escalating the war between the United States and Iran. While uncertainty like this has historically boded well for safe haven assets like gold, traders may be waiting for more concrete news about the trajectory of the conflict before making major plays. In other words, today’s lackluster precious metals market performance may be a case of “wait and see” among large institutional investors.

Domestically, traders are still looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming meetings for more cues on where the interest rates are moving. The FOMC is generally expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it meets next week. CME FedWatch finds a probability of 15.5% that the FOMC will vote to raise rates, against an 84.5% likelihood that the meeting closes with no change to the target rate.

The central bank is expected to raise rates at least once by the end of the year, though. CME FedWatch sees a probability of 82.5% that the target federal funds rate will sit 25 basis points higher or more after the Dec. 9 meeting. The most likely outcome, according to CME Group’s probability calculator, is a 25 bps hike (42%), followed by a 50 bps hike (31%).

An interesting dynamic could potentially emerge if the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate while rate hike expectations remain high. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty tends to be a bullish signal for safe haven assets like gold and silver, but the risk of a rate hike could function as a counterweight for the precious metals, since safe haven assets tend to thrive in environments where interest rates are falling.

Monday afternoon, Trump also announced a new 50% tariff on some Canadian goods, threatening a new tariff war between the two North American neighbors. Precious metals jumped throughout 2025 partially due to these wide-reaching tariff announcements, so traders may see tariff speculation return as a major driver of demand for safe haven assets, depending on Canada’s response.